The Region

Justine Hemmestad
May 5
4 min read

By The Nameless One (my good friend in Israel who would rather me not publish his name, but from whom I get an insider’s account of what’s really happening)

Iran

The “Roaring Lion / Epic Fury” operation by Israel and the U.S. against Iran has entered a different phase: the blockade.

For the past three weeks, things have been relatively normal in Israel. That normality actually made me reflect on how crazy the previous phase was, crazy in the sense that we Israelis were just casually continuing our daily lives while factoring in 1 to 5 ballistic missile attacks a day. I don’t think I can fully convey what that feels like. Completely surreal.

As for the blockade, I’m not saying it doesn’t create havoc in the Iranian system. It clearly does. We’re hearing inside stories, like the absence of rescue teams for fatal accidents, leaving victims in their cars.

But it’s also clear to me that the materialistic West doesn’t really understand the Middle East.

As someone who has spent over 20 years teaching scripture, history, and archaeology, and studying the Jewish, Christian, and Muslim civilizations and mindsets, it’s obvious that communication between the Trump administration and Iran’s fractured leadership is unlikely to be fruitful.

The Iranian system itself is fragmented: the largely unseen Ayatollah, the IRGC, the army, and the elected civilian leadership.

They are not speaking the same language, not culturally, not historically, not in terms of values. They define victory differently. They see history differently. And because of that, meaningful communication is extremely difficult. The key thing you should study and explore is the battle of Karbala and the death of Hussein in order to understand and grasp the suicidal nature of the Islamic republic of Iran.

(Editor’s Note: The Battle of Karbala, in which Husayn ibn Ali and a small band of followers were surrounded and killed by a much larger Umayyad force, demonstrates a fundamental difference in how success is defined in the region: while Israeli strategic culture emphasizes life and the furtherance of life, the legacy of Karbala—especially as it is interpreted in Iran’s Shiite tradition—is all about sacrifice/murder as moral defiance even in defeat - even the baby of Husayn was brutally massacred.)

Lebanon

The Lebanese have a very particular dynamic: they present themselves as hostages of Iran and Hezbollah, asking to be rescued, but at the same time they want to define who rescues them and how. Otherwise they prefer not to be rescued at all.

And once they are “rescued,” they also want to define the economic terms of that rescue.

The list of actors who want to “save” Lebanon from itself is long: the U.S., France, the EU, Syria, and Israel.

It’s worth remembering that Israel already intervened in Lebanon in 1982 against the PLO, and again in 2024 with the pager attack against Hezbollah.

For some reason, Israel is still playing this game instead of simply saying: “This is your problem, we’re taking southern Lebanon and that’s it.”

Trying to dismantle Hezbollah without destroying Lebanon is like trying to cure stage 5 cancer, and yes, officially there are only four stages. The chances are basically zero.

There are also growing concerns about possible political assassinations targeting President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam.

At the same time, there are reports suggesting that Syrian divisions are positioned along the Lebanese border, with a potential invasion scenario that could turn very ugly, including the risk of mass violence against Shiite communities in the Beqaa Valley.

Within Israel, public pressure on the government to annex southern Lebanon is real. I wouldn’t be surprised if some political parties include this in their platforms ahead of the 2026 elections.

Gaza

There is still unfinished business in Gaza.

In all likelihood, we may see the war resume in late 2026 or early 2027.

Meanwhile, more testimonies are emerging about sexual exploitation of women and children in Gaza, involving Hamas, other armed groups, and even some aid workers. For those familiar with how these systems operate, this isn’t particularly surprising.

West Bank

The Palestinian Authority may face bankruptcy soon, although there always seems to be someone willing to bail it out.

Over time, I think growing economic and political pressures on donor countries may change that.

Meanwhile, corruption and nepotism continue as usual. Systems don’t function properly, also as usual. And beneath the surface, tensions keep building.

The Region

We haven’t heard much lately about Syria or Yemen, which usually means trouble.

Egypt is also close to bankruptcy.

A Broader Thought

On a broader level, modern Israel has the potential to do something historically unprecedented.

Since the Bronze Age, the land of Canaan has served as a buffer zone, a battlefield between major regional powers:

Asia Minor, the Hittites, Mesopotamia, Assyria, Babylon, Persia, and Egypt.

Now, for the first time, modern Israel is strong enough to act as a balancing force in the region.

Despite widespread conspiracy theories about a “Greater Israel,” the reality is that Israel has very limited imperial ambitions.

7.5 million Jews are not going to control Egypt, Asia Minor, and Iraq.

But as we know, conspiracies have a life of their own.

This moment, unusual and unprecedented, could even be seen as aligning with the vision described in the Book of Isaiah, chapter 2: