Israel Today (An Update)

Jerusalem, 1979

Sadly, the Nameless One told me earlier this week that he thinks Israelis have grown used to living amidst a “certain degree of violence.” This frame of mind may help us to understand the concessions made by Israel in order to get the hostages back.

The Nameless One also adds,  “I’m not sure if they [Israelis] fully understand that there is a much needed victory here - not just for the sake of Israel but to also tell the Jihadists that there is a price to pay and to pave the way for other nations, especially western nations, to learn how to fight jihadists. 

“That’s the actual reason why I’m very worried about it. It will ultimately encourage the jihadists to continue if they don’t pay the price…they really need to feel like they lost.

“Israelis wanted the hostages back so badly, they couldn’t endure the psychological pain - Hamas tortured the Israeli society - on national levels, it wasn’t just families who were tortured. They wanted that [their hostages back] so badly that they preferred to end the war and get the hostages better than full control over Gaza and actually have a win.”

When living amidst such an intense threat, without the threat being completely removed, his apprehension is understandable.

He adds additional insights, “The war is currently in a pause, entering a new phase in Gaza. The ceasefire unsurprisingly is fragile and unlikely to yield much. 

“Hamas will never voluntarily disarm. Unlike Hezbollah, which faces internal opposition (from the roughly 60% of Lebanese who are not Shiite) and an official government framework, Hamas has no real opposition. Moreover, it has Qatar and Turkey on its side as part of the agreement.”

He feels that Hamas actually disarming is highly unlikely, though that is an essential part of the ceasefire agreement.

He also believes there’s no real chance of an international force that will disarm Hamas.

Thus, the threat of Hamas still exists for Israelis…the possibility of another October 7 is so real, Israel can see it.

Israel looks to the IDF to safeguard the country. The Nameless One says, “Maybe not this year, maybe not the next, but as the saying goes - they have all the watches we (the Muslims) have all the time.”

 Additionally, “Israel is entering an election year. It’s still unclear whether the war will officially continue; that decision will likely come around December or January. If the government formally declares the war over, it will have to take certain steps regarding the budget and the reservists. My guess is that the official war status will end. 

“Still, the threats are far from over.  Every front of Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, Iraq, and Iran is simmering beneath the surface, preparing for possible escalation. 

“The political tension in Israel will rise as Israel approaches elections, and that will probably encourage and embolden jihadist movements, which have no real understanding of democracy. They don’t grasp that Israelis are just as tough facing external enemies as they are in their internal debates.”

He also says, “That doesn’t mean Israel is polarized — quite the opposite. Israelis (with the exception of some segments of the Ultra Orthodox) have shown remarkable solidarity, selflessness, and friendship toward one another, with tremendous sacrifice for society as a whole. I doubt that the political debate will cross certain lines. Yet our enemies fail to understand that. 

“Just as Sinwar misread Israeli media and assumed that launching the October 7 attack was a good idea — only to discover that 360,000 Israeli reservists mobilized within 48 hours — the same mistake will likely be repeated if anyone tries something similar in 2026.

“Over the past two years, Israel has achieved many military and tactical victories, and a few strategic ones. Yet we haven’t reached a decisive strategic victory, one that shatters the jihadist paradigm. Israel hasn’t taken land or achieved a result that fundamentally changes the equation. As a result, the jihadists will inevitably conclude that they can always rely on the U.S., Europe, international bodies, and Arab and Muslim countries to prevent Israel from achieving a clear, conclusive victory.” A terrifying thought.